(Describe an example (from your own life, the news, or elsewhere) of either the perils of extrapolation or the p

(Describe an example (from your own life, the news, or elsewhere) of either the perils of extrapolation or the perils of aggregation from this week’s readings. Were these obvious to you? Does the reading help you to see them in a different light)The above is the discussion question for the class that I allready did it.I have to replay to 4 of my classmate each one 100 words (total 400 words)I attached 8 of my classmate and you choose 4 and replay to each one in 100 wordsmake sure to tell me which student is the replay for.


Describe an example (from your own life, the news, or elsewhere) of either the perils of
extrapolation or the perils of aggregation from this week’s readings. Were these obvious to
you? Does the reading help you to see them in a different light? Then reply to at least four
other posts you find interesting (100 words each).
1)
My example deals with the perils of extrapolation. I have a shed in my backyard that has survived
for roughly ten years without much attention or necessary maintenance. Upon inspection 12
months ago, it became clear that the roof was beginning to deteriorate and some of the support
beams holding up the roof material would need to be replaced.
Based on the track record of the shed, it’s current condition, and what I suspected was the decay
rate of the material, I figured that I had another four years until the material got to the point where
a repair job would be mandatory (basic extrapolation concept). So I delayed the project and
figured I would get back around to it in a few winters. That was a mistake. Due to the recent
heavy rains in California coupled with some soil settling and erosion, my four-year timeline
collapsed into an urgent matter. My poor backyard shed now needs immediate attention and a roof
replacement.
The perils of extrapolation strike again. In my case, I made the flawed assumption that decay and
material degradation occur as a linear phenomenon (e.g., it’s decaying at X percent per year, so in
a straight line, I have Y years left). I also didn’t consider the influence of unforeseen outside
variables – in this case, an abnormally wet winter.
The reading helps me to see these practical matters in a different light because I can now consider
how certain regression-based events may be non-linear occurrences, and that there may be
unknown independent variables that are exerting influence on the response variable (in this case,
the useful remaining life of my shed’s roof). These types of factors can make extrapolation a risky
endeavor.
2)
Recently I went to Bend, Oregon with a friend of mine for a weekend of adventuring, visiting
breweries, and hanging with old friends. This friend of mine along with being a good snowboarder
is a good rock climber and had all the equipment to do some climbing while we were there. I
having not climbed any real rocks at all wanted to try my hand with some climbing.
I have done a fair amount of top rope climbing, some lead climbing, and a lot of bouldering in a
gym setting. Just recently having gotten back into bouldering in the gym regularly, I thought that
I would be able to match her at the level that she climbs. Being a taller and slightly more muscular
climber I didn’t think I could match her but that I could keep up when we went to smith rocks.
This was my extrapolation at least, and oh boy was I wrong. There is a huge difference in climbing
and bouldering, one being more endurance and the other being short strength climbs. There is also
a difference between the well marked gym walls and the seemingly endless variations of routes on
real rock.
I made some presumptions about what kind of routes we would be able to climb, as well as some
presumptions about my climbing level. I was mistaken and quickly checked back to reality when
we got to Smith and did our first climb.
Next time I might have to prepare a little more or work my way up to the grade of routes we were
climbing.
3)
One of my favorite movies is Narnia. Every time they walk out of the closet the time in Narnia
passes really fast and this is not only reflected in the people but also in the geography of the land.
I remember that in the first movie they have to cross this huge river and it’s a big trouble for them
since they didn’t have a way to do so. In the third movie when they go back in they are not expected
for the geography of the place to change so when they reach the river, it is a stream and it is 30
feet in a creek. They had to walk down and cross through it.
I thought this would be a great example of extrapolation as they were expecting something
completely different. They not only presence the difference in that river but also the ocean levels
had completely risen and the water was a lot closer to the castle than the other times. I myself had
the expectation that the place was going to be pretty similar than before but it wasn’t at all, it was
a very pleasant surprise.
4)
I have what I think is a good example of the perils of extrapolation. I’ve driven from Portland, OR
to Las Vegas, NV twice for work. Last time I went, I drove through Eastern Oregon down into
Northern Nevada. I’m new to this part of the world, and I love to take long road trips. I saw a lot
of breathtaking views along this route, the most stunning of all being the stars at night in the middle
of the desert with no light pollution for hundreds of miles! On this trip, I was driving my trusty but
thirsty champion-of-cargo-hauling-and-towing 3/4-ton Chevy Suburban. Along the way, I noted
that were were gas stations approximately every 50 miles in small towns along the way. My truck
has a capacious fuel tank, so I wasn’t too concerned when I passed a tiny diner with a gas pump
out front. The gas was overpriced, and I thought to myself, “I’ve still got a quarter tank… I’m good
for another 75 miles or so.” About 5 miles past that gas station, I barely saw a tiny sign that read
“NEXT GAS 175 MILES”. Had I blinked and missed that sign my incorrect assumption that there
would be another gas station in 50 miles would have left me stranded in the middle of the desert a
hundred miles from civilization in the dark. Thankfully, the sign saved me and I made a quick Uturn to get back to the tiny diner with a gas pump!
5)
Perils of extrapolation was what I decided to talk about today. I feel as though this relates to my
life in more ways than one. Extrapolation is essentially the act of estimating or assuming based on
previous actions, incidents, or trends. If you were thinking in the form of extrapolation, you would
assume based on a previous trend that you would be able to predict upcoming actions. I personally
have experience this in relation to negotiation of salaries at a previous role. Each time I would
negotiate my raise it would be the same amount no matter if I asked for a higher raise or not. I was
correct in my extrapolation assumptions for the first two years, until I was wasn’t! It was a big let
down to be offered a smaller raise later in the my career, after being there for two years. This was
an assumption that I was wrong about and let down. This goes to show that you can not always be
correct in predictions, even though past trends would suggest that trends would continue. It’s to
bad I had to be flawed in my assumption, as this was a disappointment.
Also, you could think of the perils of extrapolation in relation to clothing trends. You can always
try to predict a trend in fashion – but it is ever changing and hard to predict.
6)
My example of perils of extrapolation happened 2 weeks ago at Mt. Bachelor. I am taking a skiing
class this term and my first couple lessons I either only fell once or never fell. I am usually a
clumsy person but for some reason thought I was unusually amazing at skiing (I have only done
the bunny hill). Two weeks ago my friend brought me to the top of the mountain to go down and
from my past experiences skiing, I thought I would be fine. I ended up spiraling down the mountain
for a good amount of time. Due to me assuming from past trends, I ended up having to climb up
the mountain, go down on the ski lift, and then get snowmobiled around the mountain. The perils
of extrapolation were in full force that day and I definitely learned from my past mistakes.
Extrapolation due to past acts, trends, and assumptions will not always turn out expected.
7)
I would say that one example of the perils of extrapolation is when Chirstopher McCandless tries
to cross back across the river in the film titled “Into the Wild”. In the film, Christopher treks into
deep Alaskan wilderness to live off of the land and experience life in the wilderness. Four months
into his Alaskan adventure, life for Chris becomes harder as he begins to make poor decisions for
survival. Eventually the harsh weather and lack of shared happiness forces him to attempt to return
from the wild back to his friends and family. However, he finds that the little stream he originally
crossed has now become a deep and violent river, and this forces him to retreat back to his
wilderness home, a broken down bus where he eventually succumbs to the harsh winter.
This is a good example of the perils of extrapolation because he didn’t expect such a shallow and
tiny stream to become so violent and strong throughout his time spent in the wilderness, and it
eventually led to his demise. This also is very similar to Mark Twain’s comment on the shortening
Mississippi river over time. Sustainability experts are constantly trying to determine when the
perils of extrapolation will kick in, but more often than not it comes sooner rather than later.
8)
An example of the perils of extrapolation came recently in my life. My fiancé and I have been
traveling around the Northwest for the last few weeks. After looking at weather forecasts before
we left, it was decided that we could leave her SUV at home and take my rear wheel drive sedan
instead. Additionally, this trip was planned specifically to avoid as much snow as possible by
carefully planning routes and watching forecasts. Last week, we traveled to my parents ranch in
Washington, where it never snows. Every year there ends up being snow in the forecast, but there
had only been about 12 inches of snowfall in the last 10 years, so we were not worried as the snow
in the forecast was low.
Unfortunately, it dumped about 14 inches of snow overnight, and another 6 inches the next day,
effectively leaving us stuck 3 miles down an unmaintained farm road. All of our research and
previous knowledge led us to believe that snow would not be an issue on this trip, yet we got
caught in a nearly historic level snow storm.

Purchase answer to see full
attachment